Understanding the Expected Value Formula in Sports Betting

Sports betting has become rather hectic, and to succeed, bettors need to understand key concepts like the Expected Value formula, or +EV. Knowing what +EV means helps you make better bets even when you’re not sure of the outcome. In this article, Megapari explains what +EV is, why it matters, and how you can make extra money with it.

Expected Value in Betting

You can consider Expected Value (EV), or a bet calculator, your pocket tool that shows the average result of a bet if it were repeated many times. It helps you decide whether a bet is worth the money, as you basically calculate wins and losses on upcoming sports events.

The value is determined when you multiply the chance of winning by the amount you’d win, and then subtract the chance of losing multiplied by the amount you’d lose.

The expected value calculator is

EV = (PW × AW) − (PL × AL)

Where: 

PW = Probability of winning  

AW = Amount won per bet  

PL = Probability of losing  

AL = Amount lost per bet

Expected value formula: How to calculate EV

How to calculate betting odds ipl with EV – an example

Imagine you’re betting on certain football teams. So, you bet $50 on Team A in a cricket match. The odds for Team A are $1.90, and for Team B, $2.20.

Convert odds to probabilities

– Probability Team A wins: 1 ÷ 1.90 = 0.5263 (or 52.63%)  

– Probability Team A loses: 1 ÷ 2.20 = 0.4545 (or 45.45%)

Total = 52.63% + 45.45% = 98.08% → the bookmaker’s margin is about 1.92%.

Determine potential win and loss  

• If you win: $50 × 1.90 = $95 total return → $45 profit  
• If you lose: you lose your $50 stake

Paste it into the EV bet calculator formula

EV = (0.5263 × $45) − (0.4545 × $50)
= $23.68 − $22.73
= +$0.95

This positive EV of $0.95 means that, over many identical bets, you’d expect to gain about 95 cents per $50 wager. 

Use Numbers to Your Advantage

The Expected Value formula can make the overall betting process much more pleasant for bettors. When you determine the EV of a bet, the betting choices come easier to you, let alone improving your chances of profiting over time. While betting always carries risk, Megapari suggests that focusing on +EV bets can help you bet smart.